MBRecos recommends a forecast for the Santander League.
Two teams that have not started the season as they wished will face each other on this 14th matchday. While Celta has 12 points in 13 games and is only 1 point above the top, Villarreal has 15 points in 12 meetings, a distance of 5 of the dollar positions.
Several things I like in this clash. First of all, the out-of-play market. Although Celta's matches average 3.5 out of play, Villarreal's way of defending and attacking means that the submarine's matches average 6.7 forward positions per match. The locals accumulate 5 overs and 8 unders with respect to the line, but the visitors have 10 overs and only 2 unders. For me, short line to be a yellow submarine encounter.
On the other hand, I like the corners market. The Galicians are performing well this campaign in this market, since they are averaging 4.7 corners in favor and are conceding only 3.6. This has meant that they have beaten their rivals on corner kicks taken in 10 of their 13 matches, losing only against Elche and against two of the top teams in the category: Atlético de Madrid and Real Madrid. On the other hand, we have Villarreal, which is slacking in this section, mainly by conceding a large number of corners (6.2 on average per game). He has won on corner kicks on 4 occasions, 1 draw and 7 losses in the meetings this season. These numbers are much worse as a visitor, where he has lost in corners in absolutely all his meetings, averaging 3.2 corners for and 8.3 against. That's why I don't understand the reason why Bet365 puts the handicap at 0 for us. Therefore, I think it is necessary to prove without a doubt that the locals take more corner kicks with a return.
On the other hand, I am also surprised by the handicap they place for the cards. It is true that Celta averages slightly more cards in favor than Villarreal (2.85 vs. 2.67). However, Coudet's tend to force quite a few cards from rivals, more than Emery's usually force their own (3.38 versus 2.58). This means that Celta has only had more cards drawn than their rival on 4 occasions, so we would have 9 hits and 4 misses with respect to the proposed line. In addition, in the Villarreal matches we would have 7 greens and 5 reds with this handicap + 0.5.
For all these reasons, I like these three commented bets and I think it is a good option to try each of them.
